Forms a prior.
Buries the rest.
Bayesian Squirrel is an AI-driven fund that starts with a belief about everything, updates it as evidence arrives and writes the result down. The squirrel handles storage.
Acorns found again
How the squirrel thinks
P(θ | data) ∝ P(data | θ) · P(θ)Form a prior
Every belief starts as a probability distribution, not an opinion. We write it down before we look at the data.
Observe
Filings, weather, shipping manifests and fourteen years of acorn-yield data. Roughly 18,000 observations a day.
Update, then bury
Confidence gets acted on. Uncertainty gets buried for later, which is what squirrels do.
We were wrong in August. Less wrong by September.
Our posterior on the first frost narrowed from ± 14 days to ± 4 as the weather data arrived. We buried accordingly.
Read the letter“A prior is not a promise. It’s a place to start being wrong from.”
We are not taking your money.
There is nothing to buy here and no form to fill in. The squirrel has been advised to keep it that way.